KVB Market Analysis | 16 August: USD/JPY Forecast: Short-Term Bearish Trend Amid Dollar Consolidation
This year's arbitrage gains have been erased, with 65%-75% of these positions closed. The dollar's reaction has been as expected but slightly disappointing, with a significant 100 basis point rise in U.S. short-term interest rates impacting it. JPMorgan has reduced its dollar forecasts, now predicting USD/JPY at $146 in Q4 2024 and $144 in Q2 2025, down from $147. Despite a weakening job market, other economic data remains strong.
Global Market Insights: Key Events and Economic Analysis Part 2
This week's global market analysis covers significant movements and events. Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rates impacts the USD. TSMC benefits from Samsung's strike. Geopolitical tensions rise with Putin's diplomacy. PBOC plans bond sales to stabilize CNY. Key economic events include Core CPI, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the USA, and GDP data for the UK. These factors influence currency movements and market sentiment globally.
Today's analysis: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which could support the US dollar and pressure gold prices if a hawkish stance is taken. Gold prices continue to decline after breaking an upward wedge pattern, with a key support level at $2250. The 14-day RSI indicates further potential decline unless prices recover above the 50-day and 21-day moving averages.
EURGBP Price Outlook Tracks ECB Monetary Policy and Brexit News
Two weak currencies that are currently looking ahead to potentially defining moments that will provide a clear signal for both. How will they compare against each other？
Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The recent Canadian dollar weakness against the US dollar may come under pressure later in the session as the Bank of Canada releases its latest interest rate decision. Nearby USDCAD support may come under pressure.
EUR/USD Price Outlook Muted, ECB Bulletin Points to Global Uncertainties
Softening global growth and weak international trade are weighing on the euro area outlook, according to the latest ECB Bulletin, leaving EURUSD under downside pressure.
BoE Cuts Growth Outlook, Sterling (GBP) Unmoved
BoE unanimously keeps rates at 0.75% as Brexit uncertainty continues to devaluate the pound and adjusts forward guidance to acknowledge the slump in global growth.
Gold Price Outlook: Support Holds, FOMC-Fuelled Breakout Looms
The daily gold price chart shows the recent uptrend support line holding firm while resistance now looks increasingly vulnerable. Will the FOMC break the impasse？
US Q2 GDP Stronger Than Expected, US Dollar Continues to Rally
The first look at US Q2 GDP beat market expectations with ease and further boosted the US dollar ahead of next weeks highly anticipated FOMC rate decision.
EURUSD Drops as ECB Paves Way for Rate Cut and QE Restart
EURUSD dips as ECB changes forward guidance to allow for a rate cut in September.
EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive
EURUSD remains under selling pressure after another set of weak Euro-Zone PMIs. The ECB meeting on Thursday now takes on increased importance will they stimulate the economy tomorrow or not？
