US Q2 GDP Preview: Slowest Growth Since 2017

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

• US Q2 GDP is expected to show that the economy is growing at its slowest pace in two years

  美国第二季度GDP预计将显示经济增长两年来最慢的步伐

• Business demand growth may be a signal of third quarter strength

  业务需求增长可能是第三季度实力的信号

• Likelihood of Fed cutting rates remains high, even if GDP is better than expected

  即使国内生产总值好于预期，美联储降息的可能性仍然很高

Q2 GDP forecasts show that the US economy is likely to have experienced slower growth in the second quarter of the year on the back of continued trade tensions despite consumer spending being firm. It is expected that GDP grew 1.8% in the second quarter, which would be slowest rate of growth since 2017. Despite the figure being in line with periods when growth is slowing, it would be a sharp decline from the 3.1% growth seen at the beginning of 2019 and the worst figure since Donald Trump took office.

第二季度GDP预测显示，尽管消费者支出坚挺，但由于持续的贸易紧张局势，美国经济可能在今年第二季度出现较慢增长。预计第二季度国内生产总值增长1.8％，这将是2017年以来增长最慢的增长率。尽管这一数字与经济增长放缓的时期一致，但仍将从增长率3.1％的增长率大幅下降。自从唐纳德特朗普上任以来，这是自2019年初以来最糟糕的数字。

The period from April to June is likely to have seen an unwinding of stockpiles in response to the various tariff deadlines imposed during that period, bringing down the number of exports and weighing heavily on domestic output.

4月至6月期间可能会出现库存减少以应对各期间征收的各种关税期限。那个时期，减少出口数量，严重影响国内产出。

But figures released on Thursday showed that demand for business equipment increased in the month of June by the biggest amount since early 2018. Orders place in US factories for business equipment jumped 1.9% in June showing that despite trade disruption and tariffs business investment is regaining momentum.

但周四公布的数据显示，6月份商用设备需求增幅最大自2018年初以来，美国工厂的商业设备订单增加了1.9％，显示尽管贸易中断和关税，商业投资正在重新获得动力。

{9}

This carries the potential that the performance in June might have safeguarded growth more than expected, which could see GDP being slightly above expectations. This would see USD regain strength pushing GBPUSD and EURGBP back close to 2017 lows.

{9}

The fall in growth is unlikely to have an impact on the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the meeting next week, but it will help gauge the health of the US economy and will provide policy makers with the tools to decide on whether more cuts are needed in the future. Despite the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates being high, if Q2 GDP is confirmed to be in line with, or below, expectations we may see a retracement in US equities as they react to a weakening economy, but that would quickly be corrected as a lower growth rate increases the likelihood of a rate cut, a positive sign for equity markets.

增长的下降不太可能对美联储降息的预期产生影响在下周的会议上，它将有助于衡量美国经济的健康状况，并将为政策制定者提供工具，以决定未来是否需要进一步减产。尽管有可能美联储降息率很高，如果确认第二季度国内生产总值符合或低于预期，我们可能会看到美国股市的回撤，因为它们对经济疲软做出反应，但随着经济增长率下降，这种情况很快就会得到纠正降息的可能性，股市的正面信号。

Source: CME Group

来源：CME Group