Daily Market Recap - NZDUSD

Kiwi dollar fell on Thursday as demand for the greenback picked up in the wake of the Iranian crisis and economic data from New Zealand came in below expectations. The ANZ National bank released its Commodity Price figure for the month of December. The figure came in at -2.8 percent, marking a large negative deviation from the expectation of a 3 percent increase.

The ANZ Commodity Price figure is typically seen as a leading indicator of changes in export prices. A strong performance in this metric usually contributes to a rise in the NZD, whereas a negative figure will weigh on the currency. The current reading of the figure points to a bearish bias in the New Zealand economy in the short term.

The NZD also mirrored its Australian counterpart in its drop as both currencies are positively correlated. The ongoing wildfires in the country and the looming rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to weigh on the pair.

Looking at the technical landscape, the current NZDUSD price has dipped below the 2017 trendline and looks set to test the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement line at 0.65899. We could expect a slight rebound off that level as buying pressure in the US dollar stabilizes. The dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering below its short-term moving average which will likely prove a hurdle to cross as seen in last week's trading activity.

In a search for upside potential in the NZDUSD, the immediate resistance to the test would be the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 0.66289. Should the price manage to firmly cross above it, we would be expecting further continuity in the uptrend, perhaps seeing a push towards the 0.6672 resistance level. On the flip side, as economic woes continue to plague world trade, a bearish target towards the 0.655 handles could be envisioned.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 09.01.2020)

Investors will be paying close attention to tomorrow's US non-farm payroll figures to dictate short term direction in the pair. Markets will be on the lookout for any improvement in the labor landscape as US unemployment rates are expected to remain stable.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.