Daily Market Recap - USDJPY Fundamental Analysis

Global equities continued to rise on Thursday after news broke that China will be halving tariffs on select US goods next week. The move was hailed by investors hoping to ride the wave of optimism in the market. A risk-on sentiment ensued but surprisingly did not have much effect on the USDJPY, the pair gaining only 0.15 percent for the day.

The lack of significant gains in the USDJPY this session suggests that the recent rallies have been too much to digest, perhaps fuelled by short coverings. Traders might be waiting for a correction towards a more favorable price level before putting in new bids.

Failing to test the 110.184 resistance level indicates that investors might still on their guards over the potential economic impact the coronavirus will have on the Chinese and global economy as a whole. A number of traders are already speculating aggressively on a swift recovery with little long-term damage from this epidemic. However, it may still be too early to downplay the risks.

After a significant push higher on Tuesday, the USDJPY stabilized within its previous range of 109.307 to 110.184. The pair is poised to continue trading sideways in the short term with a bullish target of 110.278, corresponding to the January highs. Current momentum seems to be losing steam though, should it tip in favor of the bears, we would be looking for a target of 109.773. The RSI is floating just below overbought conditions signaling a short-term correction may occur.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 06.02.2020)

Looking ahead, traders should pay attention to US economic data releases on Friday, most importantly the non-farm payrolls. There will also be an opportunity to react to the Chinese trade balance figures, a proxy to the JPY. Should US unemployment figures come out better than expected; USDJPY will likely receive a boost.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.