Abstract:Traders are trying to reckon with impact of Trumps shifting tariff policy.
Trillions were wiped off the value of financial markets around the world in the aftermath of Trumps Liberation Day announcement.
Leading share indexes in the US and UK saw some of the steepest declines since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, dropping more than 10% over three days.
Oil prices sank and so did the dollar.
By Wednesday, the worries had spread to the bond market, as investors started dumping US government debt, usually a safe haven for investors in times of uncertainty.
When Trump announced he was putting some of the most eye-watering tariffs on pause, shares stopped sliding and rallied.
But the market turmoil was far from over.
Trump left in place a tariff of 10% on imports from most countries and a tariff of 145% on goods from China, Americas third largest source of imports after the European Union and Mexico.
A day after the announcement, the S&P 500 dropped another 3.5%, the Dow slid 2.5% and the Nasdaq fell 4.3%.
At St Louis-based Argent Capital Management, the mood, said portfolio manager Jed Ellerbroek, was still miserable.
Some of his firms holdings, like health insurance giant United Healthcare, have done well over the last week, as investors look for companies likely to be able to weather the tariff storm.
But his third largest investment is Apple, which makes the majority of its iPhones and other products in China.
Trump has induced a gigantic amount of uncertainty into the global economy and consumers and investors and business managers are reeling and unable to make long-term decisions, Mr Ellerboek said.
We are really on hold, because we only trade when we have high conviction levels, he said.
What do we do with Apple? I don‘t know. I’m not going to change when I have no clue what the tariff rate is going to be next week, he said.
Faced with so many uncertainties, some investors are simply quitting the market, said John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.
What you‘re looking at, broadly speaking, is a market that is frustrated, uncertain and confused about where we’re going to be one day to the next, he said. In that environment you have a tendency to see some investors choosing the safety of cash.
While Trumps tariff rollback was a relief, he said it did not change the bigger picture: firms in the US that are bringing in parts or products are facing significantly higher import taxes than they were at the start of the year.
The tariffs that remain are still high enough that they are likely to push up inflation and weigh significantly on the economy as we go forward, he said.
Were just trading back again on the broader long-term outlook of the tariff implications, which is still negative.
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