KVB Market Analysis | 23 August: JPY Gains Ground Against USD as BoJ Signals Possible Rate Hike
JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
KVB Market Analysis | 22 August: Gold Stays Strong Above $2,500 as Fed Rate Cut Hints Loom
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.
KVB Market Analysis | 21 August: USD/JPY Stalls Near 145.50 Amid Diverging Economic Indicators
USD/JPY holds near 145.50, recovering from 144.95 lows. The Yen strengthens on strong GDP, boosting rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. However, gains may be limited by potential US Fed rate cuts in September.
KVB Market Analysis | 20 August: Gold Prices Remain Near Record High Amid US Rate Cut Expectations
Gold prices remain near record highs, driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut and a weakening US Dollar. Investors are focusing on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's stance. Additionally, the release of US manufacturing data (PMIs) is expected to influence gold's direction.
KVB Market Analysis | 19 August: JPY Gains Ground on USD Amid Rate Cut Uncertainty and Strong GDP Data
JPY is strengthening against USD after Japan's strong GDP growth raised prospects of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The USD/JPY pair, initially boosted by a strong USD and higher Treasury yields, is now pressured by uncertainty over a potential US rate cut, with traders debating between a 25 or 50 basis point reduction.
KVB Market Analysis | 16 August: USD/JPY Forecast: Short-Term Bearish Trend Amid Dollar Consolidation
This year's arbitrage gains have been erased, with 65%-75% of these positions closed. The dollar's reaction has been as expected but slightly disappointing, with a significant 100 basis point rise in U.S. short-term interest rates impacting it. JPMorgan has reduced its dollar forecasts, now predicting USD/JPY at $146 in Q4 2024 and $144 in Q2 2025, down from $147. Despite a weakening job market, other economic data remains strong.
KVB Market Analysis | 15 August: Gold Prices Drop Sharply Following U.S. CPI Report and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Spot XAU/USD dropped nearly $18, closing below $2,450, after the latest U.S. CPI report reduced hopes for a significant Fed rate cut. The CPI rose 0.2% in July, with a notable increase in rent, particularly "owner's equivalent rent," which accelerated to 0.36%, contributing to the market's disappointment.
Anticipating the Nonfarm Payroll Report
As we approach the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on August 2, 2024, market participants are keenly observing the data for insights into the U.S. labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 194,000 to 206,000 jobs for July, indicating modest growth. This suggests potential softening in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, influencing the USD. Major currency pairs and gold prices will likely see volatility around the NFP release
KVB Today's Analysis: XAU/USD Prices Steady Above $2,350 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
Gold prices are holding above $2,350 in early Asian trading despite a recent dip to two-week lows. This stability follows stronger-than-expected Q2 2024 US GDP, which raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans. Core PCE inflation moderated to 2.9%, and jobless claims declined. Markets still anticipate a Fed rate cut in September due to ongoing disinflation. Gold initially fell on the GDP data but recovered with the softer core PCE reading.
KVB Today's Analysis: USD/JPY Eases Below 157.50 Amid Yen Gains and Treasury Yield Impact
USD/JPY is under selling pressure around $153, a three-month low, as expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate cut support the Yen. The focus is on the advanced US Q2 GDP. Mixed US PMI data and a dovish Fed stance add to the selling pressure on the USD.
Today's Analysis: XAU/USD Prices Surge Above $2,400 Amid U.S. Economic Data and India's Tax Cut
Gold prices are set to rise, driven by a busy U.S. economic schedule and interest rate cut expectations. Rebounding above $2,400 due to India's import tax cut, gold is poised for further gains. Bullish RSI indicates strong momentum, with key resistance at $2,412 and $2,450, and an all-time high of $2,483 in sight. Support levels are at $2,384 and the 50-day SMA at $2,359.
Today's analysis: USD/JPY Under Pressure as Yen Strengthens Amid Risk-Off Sentiment
The USD/JPY pair is trading below 157.00, with the Japanese Yen strengthening due to risk-off sentiment in the Asian session. The pair is now focused on potential Japanese intervention and upcoming US economic data. On Monday, USD/JPY fell over 0.20% and is currently at 156.96, with a bearish outlook for potential further declines.
XAU/USD Post-Rate Cut Bets Analysis
Gold prices rise amid optimism for U.S. rate cuts, nearing all-time highs. Market sentiment is bullish as investors seek safe-haven assets. Fed Chair Powell's supportive remarks further boost gold’s appeal. Short-term gains are expected if the dollar weakens and rate cut bets continue.
Global Market Summary: Economic and Geopolitical Impacts Part 2
Geopolitical tensions rise as Chinese and Russian firms develop attack drones, potentially aiding Russia. Trump’s fundraising outpaces Biden, increasing political uncertainty. New Japanese banknotes may boost investment and spending. Changes in China’s financial sector align with "common prosperity" policies. Asian stocks rise with easing U.S. inflation concerns, while oil prices surge on reduced U.S. inventories. Slow services growth in China and strong retail sales in Australia affect respecti
Global Market Summary: Economic and Geopolitical Impacts Part 1
Geopolitical tensions rise as Chinese and Russian firms develop attack drones, potentially aiding Russia. Trump’s fundraising outpaces Biden, increasing political uncertainty. New Japanese banknotes may boost investment and spending. Changes in China’s financial sector align with "common prosperity" policies. Asian stocks rise with easing U.S. inflation concerns, while oil prices surge on reduced U.S. inventories. Slow services growth in China and strong retail sales in Australia affect respecti
Gold Price Explodes to Fresh Yearly Highs - Levels to Know
Gold prices have caught a significant ramp over the past two weeks and are now testing long-term resistance. But will the FOMC be as dovish as Gold bulls hope for？
Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Feds Powell Cools Rate Cut Bets
Crude oil prices may fall further after hitting a four-month low as Fed Chair Powell talks down imminent rate cut speculation, souring investors mood market-wide.
Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breaks Out, Goes Overbought - Levels to Know
Gold prices are starting June by continuing Friday's bullish breakout. With RSI going overbought and beginning to diverge, can bulls continue to push？
Crude Oil Prices May Fall Further on Trade Wars, Oversupply Fears
Crude oil prices may continue to fall after hitting a three-month low as trade war escalation weighs on the outlook for demand even as US inventories swell.
Crude Oil Price Recovery May Be Running Out of Steam
Crude oil prices may turn lower if technical signs of ebbing upside momentum find follow-through. API inventory flow data is on tap ahead.
