Fed Rate Cut Calls, Would NFP Tilt The Odds?
The latest data for the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, released on August 1, 2024, shows a decline to 46.8, down from 48.5 in June. This marks the sixth consecutive month of contraction (a reading below 50) and remains well below the historical average of 52.88. On July, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a 25-basis-point cut in its benchmark interest rate, reducing it to 4.5%. This was the second consecutive rate cut, following a similar move in June. The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for..
Fed Pressured: Will CPI Data Fuels Calls for Rate Cuts？
The U.S Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, which was slightly above market expectations of 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% during its last meeting on July 2024, which was consistent with market expectations. As of June 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a modest increase of 3.0% year-over-year, weaker than market expectation and previous reading of 3.1% and 3.3%..
Fed Rate Cut Locked In? All Eyes on PCE!
The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 has been revised to 51.6, slightly lower than the expectation of 51.7 but up from 51.3 in May. In its most recent decision in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering it from 5% to 4.75% in response to easing inflation indicators. In the first quarter of 2024, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4%, slightly surpassing market expectations of 1.3%. This growth marked a...
Powell’s Dovish Tone Hammers Dollar
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that recent U.S. economic data suggest inflation is returning to a downward trajectory. However, he emphasised the need for more evidence before the Fed considers shifting its current monetary policy. Consequently, the dollar eased from its recent highs, while U.S. equity markets, buoyed by the dovish tone, saw the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs.
【MACRO Insight】Facing the dual risks of 'CPI + Fed,' is the market ready?
Ahead of Wednesday's dual risks event of 'CPI + Fed,' traders are reducing their bets on a rise in U.S. Treasuries. Market data indicates the Fed may maintain high rates for a longer period, contrary to the previous expectation of an easing cycle. Since the release of non-farm payroll data last Friday, open interest in 10-year Treasury futures has decreased by about 80,000 contracts, reflecting traders unwinding bullish bets.
Will Fed Push Back On Rate Cut Next Week?
In April, U.S. consumer prices saw a smaller-than-expected increase, registering at 0.3% compared to the previous 0.4%. In May, the Federal Reserve decided unanimously to maintain policy rates for the sixth consecutive time, keeping the federal funds target rate at 5.50%, in line with expectations. In April, the producer price index, which gauges what producers receive for their goods, rose by 0.5%, marking a 2.2% increase over the past 12 months, the largest rise in a year. In April, the Bank..
Fed Faces Inflation Heat: What's Next for FOMC？
In February, retail sales in Australia saw a slight increase, fueled by heightened spending on clothing and dining out, likely spurred by popular Taylor Swift concerts drawing crowds. The U.S private sector employment increased by 184,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year. It was the largest addition since July and higher than the expected reading of 148k new private jobs with the biggest increases for job changers were in construction, financial services and...
GEMFOREX - weekly analysis
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
GEMFOREX - weekly analysis
The week ahead: 5 things to watch.
GEMFOREX - weekly analysis
The week ahead: Dollar awaits key US data
Fed Reaction: Rate hikes are coming, Retail sales miss, Empire shows manufacturing remains robust
US stocks turned positive after the Fed doubled the pace of tapering and forecasted three rate hikes in 2022 and another three increases in 2023. Financial markets were nervous the Fed was going to exercise caution with a doubling of the taper pace, which would have been a policy mistake
Stocks Close at Record Highs Again as Fed Says Taper To Begin
Stocks close at record highs for third-straight day Wednesday as the Fed says it will begin slowing the pace of its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases.
Fed Bans Stock Trading, Restricts Other Investing by Senior Officials
The Federal Reserve announced sweeping new rules for its top officials Thursday, banning trading in individual stocks and bonds.
Fed Chair Powell says more action may be needed to fend off lasting economic damage - Business Insider
"While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter," Powell said.
Fed Chair Powell says more action may be needed to fend of economic ruin - Business Insider
"While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter," Powell said.
6 Fed officials comment on economic rebound, unemployment, stimulus - Business Insider
Several officials agreed that the Fed's relief efforts — while necessary — pose economic risks if they go unchecked and aren't appropriately reversed.
PPP loans more common in states with existing bank relationships: Fed - Business Insider
Virus hotspots including New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are receiving fewer PPP loan approvals than less-affected states, the economists wrote.
Job Growth Reduced Chances of the Fed’s Rate Cut
Statistics from the US Department of Labour show that US Nonfarm Payroll increased by 225,000 in January, 2020, exceeding the market’s estimation of 165,000 and December’s 147,000 after revision while being significantly higher than the 175,000 of the same period last year.
U.S. Fed cuts interest rates, signals it is on hold
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time this year to help sustain U.S. growth despite a slowdown in other parts of the world, but signaled there would be no further reductions unless the economy takes a turn for the worse.
Next recession, market crash: Peter Schiff unloads on Fed behavior
Peter Schiff, president and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, thinks time is wearing thin for the US economy.
